Come to this blog and fight me for my claims of luck, Saints fans.
It's not as though the Saints punter kicked it just...so that a slightly counterclockwise spin would hit the man's chest and ricochet off.
If he did, I want him on my squad.
Monday, September 20, 2010
Luck
See my friends, that was luck.
Reggie Bush muffs the punt and who comes up with the muff? Reggie Bush.
ALSO BATTED BALL INTs. Sure, it takes skill to bat the ball (or was that an offensive player?) but it's not like the Saints are good enough to intentionally bat the ball to someone. That shit just happens. Sometimes that batted ball finds a defensive hand to cradle it and other time it falls harmlessly to the turf.
And in 19-14 games in the fourth...
Wait a second.
Right now the 49ers are muffing a punt ONE INCH FROM THE SIDELINES and...there it goes...bouncing...right back into the field of play for a Saint to recover.
Wow.
That is how luck and bounces influence the outcome of otherwise evenly matched games. Saints are looking pretty now. The 2009 magic continues.
Reggie Bush muffs the punt and who comes up with the muff? Reggie Bush.
ALSO BATTED BALL INTs. Sure, it takes skill to bat the ball (or was that an offensive player?) but it's not like the Saints are good enough to intentionally bat the ball to someone. That shit just happens. Sometimes that batted ball finds a defensive hand to cradle it and other time it falls harmlessly to the turf.
And in 19-14 games in the fourth...
Wait a second.
Right now the 49ers are muffing a punt ONE INCH FROM THE SIDELINES and...there it goes...bouncing...right back into the field of play for a Saint to recover.
Wow.
That is how luck and bounces influence the outcome of otherwise evenly matched games. Saints are looking pretty now. The 2009 magic continues.
Sunday, September 19, 2010
Redzone Woes
It continues.
Two plays away from 14, come away with 6.
Someone, anyone, is it simply the Redskins personnel that can't get the job done in the redzone?
ON THE OTHER HAND: Houston - One trip, one touchdown. Great
Two plays away from 14, come away with 6.
Someone, anyone, is it simply the Redskins personnel that can't get the job done in the redzone?
ON THE OTHER HAND: Houston - One trip, one touchdown. Great
Flopping?
I hate the new protect the QB from paper cuts NFL.
It's come to this: In the Carolina/Tampa game Josh Freeman flopped. Yes, he did.
Ref sees the QB go down and throws a 15 yard flag.
Flopping: Soccer, basketball, Football?
It's come to this: In the Carolina/Tampa game Josh Freeman flopped. Yes, he did.
Ref sees the QB go down and throws a 15 yard flag.
Flopping: Soccer, basketball, Football?
The Next Catch
It happened again. Lions involved.
From NFL.com:
Eagles fans are unhappy, surely. Someone just got beat up.
This was even less of a catch than Megatron's, I think. Lion's fans, the few that remain, would've wept. The bottom line on this call is DeSean Jackson just had to hold onto the ball. Simple enough.
It makes me think that the umpire judgment for catch is similar to pass interference and you know what, the subjective nature of pass interference has determined the outcome of many more games than this catch rule ever will.
From NFL.com:
3-3-PHI 48(3:12) (Shotgun) M.Vick pass deep left to D.Jackson to DET 17 for 35 yards (J.Wade). Detroit challenged the incomplete pass ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) M.Vick pass incomplete deep left to D.Jackson (J.Wade).
Eagles fans are unhappy, surely. Someone just got beat up.
This was even less of a catch than Megatron's, I think. Lion's fans, the few that remain, would've wept. The bottom line on this call is DeSean Jackson just had to hold onto the ball. Simple enough.
It makes me think that the umpire judgment for catch is similar to pass interference and you know what, the subjective nature of pass interference has determined the outcome of many more games than this catch rule ever will.
Diaper Follies
How come when The Boy out-pees his diapers more ends up on his shirt than his pants? He woke up with the base of his shirt soaked today; his pants were bone dry.
It's not like the diaper literally fills up and overflows from the top.
It's not like the diaper literally fills up and overflows from the top.
End of an Endzoneless Era
In Week 1 vs the Cowboys the Redskins went to a place they hadn't been in sometime. The endzone, on defense.
They'd been close. Last year, D. Hall ran a Carolina pick back to the two and we scored on the next play.
In 2008 Steven Jackson of the Rams fumbled on the two. We recovered and CP ran in in the next play.
But not since Sean Taylor ran a Tampa fumble back in 2007 (or, going back regular season only, week 7 of 2007 when London Fletcher ran a INT back 26 yards to paydirt) has member of the Redskins D put 6 on the board.
Only the Oakland Raiders have a longer streak. The teams with zero defensive TDs in 2008/09 averaged 6.3 wins while the top four defensive scoring teams averaged 9.8 wins.
Why?
A lot of it's luck. Take the streak busting D. Hall TD:
Right place. Right time. Dumb luck. And since a stat head confirmed it, it must be true, the Redskins were one of the most unlucky teams in the league in 2009 and 2008.
What is luck in football? Brian Burke of Advanced NFL Stats describes succinctly:
So luck plays a huge part. But, to an extent, defensive TDs are also a product of turnovers generated which are in part a product of pressuring the QB. Things the the Skins have been bad (for the most part, we go to the QB OK last year) at. Sprinkle an extra 6 points over almost any game in 2009 and the Redskins win.
The switch to Hasslet's 3-4 will hopefully result in more plays that lead to TOs which lead to defensive TDs. It will be something I follow eagerly all season. If Laron Landry going berserk for the first 4 quarters of 2010 is any indication, we're off to a good start.
They'd been close. Last year, D. Hall ran a Carolina pick back to the two and we scored on the next play.
In 2008 Steven Jackson of the Rams fumbled on the two. We recovered and CP ran in in the next play.
But not since Sean Taylor ran a Tampa fumble back in 2007 (or, going back regular season only, week 7 of 2007 when London Fletcher ran a INT back 26 yards to paydirt) has member of the Redskins D put 6 on the board.
Only the Oakland Raiders have a longer streak. The teams with zero defensive TDs in 2008/09 averaged 6.3 wins while the top four defensive scoring teams averaged 9.8 wins.
Why?
A lot of it's luck. Take the streak busting D. Hall TD:
Right place. Right time. Dumb luck. And since a stat head confirmed it, it must be true, the Redskins were one of the most unlucky teams in the league in 2009 and 2008.
What is luck in football? Brian Burke of Advanced NFL Stats describes succinctly:
But special teams plays are the most random events in the sport, save for the coin flip. Luck is a punt that lands on the 5 and skids into the end zone for touchback instead of bouncing into the air and being downed at the 1. A kick or punt return for a touchdown certainly requires skill, but when the kick return (or missed field goal or anything else) occurs means everything.
A missed FG when a team is already ahead by 20 points doesn't mean much, but when a team is behind by 1 in the 4th quarter, it means the game. Teams and players can't control when those events occur, or else they'd save up their successes for when they matter most and their failures for when they don't. So in a very substantial way, they are luck, at least when it comes to deciding game outcomes.
So luck plays a huge part. But, to an extent, defensive TDs are also a product of turnovers generated which are in part a product of pressuring the QB. Things the the Skins have been bad (for the most part, we go to the QB OK last year) at. Sprinkle an extra 6 points over almost any game in 2009 and the Redskins win.
The switch to Hasslet's 3-4 will hopefully result in more plays that lead to TOs which lead to defensive TDs. It will be something I follow eagerly all season. If Laron Landry going berserk for the first 4 quarters of 2010 is any indication, we're off to a good start.
Saturday, September 18, 2010
One year of fatherhood in review
I love being a Dad. Love it. It defines me and will forever.
Throughout his first year I wanted to write but nothing really jumped out as a singular event. It was just continuous joy. I'd return from work, hug my son, kiss my wife, and be lost until morning.
Here is his first year in pictures.
Throughout his first year I wanted to write but nothing really jumped out as a singular event. It was just continuous joy. I'd return from work, hug my son, kiss my wife, and be lost until morning.
Here is his first year in pictures.
Blueberries
Just smell awful in a diaper. Awful. You break open the tabs and right as you see the dark blue mess a wave of acidity hits you in the depths of your nose.
Just foul.
Just foul.
The Catch
Much has been written regarding Calvin Johnson's catch ruled not catch and I have little more to add.
I think the rule deeming the pass incomplete makes sense and here's why: If Johnson catches the ball in the field of play than the result of the play (if those screaming "CATCH!" are correct) is a fumble. He was not down by contact after all. If this had happened and the Bears recovered, or if it happened to my team, I don't know that I would agree with that call. I wouldn't be happy at least.
A similar play happened with opposite results last year. Skins and Saints in overtime and on the first possession Mike Sellers catches a quick out, takes two steps and drops the ball (football move). The play was ruled a fumble and the call was upheld after replay. The ground wasn't involved here but I think it paints a good picture of what establishes possession. Is it instantaneous, control and two feet down is a catch or does a receiver have to demonstrate possession with a football move?
Remember, the instantaneous possession rule would favor defenses because instantaneous possession would lead to uber fumbles.
I think the rule deeming the pass incomplete makes sense and here's why: If Johnson catches the ball in the field of play than the result of the play (if those screaming "CATCH!" are correct) is a fumble. He was not down by contact after all. If this had happened and the Bears recovered, or if it happened to my team, I don't know that I would agree with that call. I wouldn't be happy at least.
A similar play happened with opposite results last year. Skins and Saints in overtime and on the first possession Mike Sellers catches a quick out, takes two steps and drops the ball (football move). The play was ruled a fumble and the call was upheld after replay. The ground wasn't involved here but I think it paints a good picture of what establishes possession. Is it instantaneous, control and two feet down is a catch or does a receiver have to demonstrate possession with a football move?
Remember, the instantaneous possession rule would favor defenses because instantaneous possession would lead to uber fumbles.
Fair-weather father?
My son's born. The Redskins lose and lose and lose some more and I never post.
A year later, on his first birthday, we beat our rival Cowboys, look like we may win some games this year, and I dust off the keyboard and start blogging again.
Fair-weather fan or fair-weather father?
A year later, on his first birthday, we beat our rival Cowboys, look like we may win some games this year, and I dust off the keyboard and start blogging again.
Fair-weather fan or fair-weather father?
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